Start at 38, Retire at 50
12 years of accumulation. Standard diversified allocation.
Accumulation
12 years
age 38 → 50
Portfolio at Retirement
$1.0M
Power Law model
Monthly Budget
$7,129
at retirement
Sustainable?
Yes
through age 85
Strategy Comparison
| Strategy | Portfolio at 50 | Sustainable? |
|---|---|---|
| Default (diversified) | $1.0M | Yes |
| Aggressive (100% BTC DCA) | $1.7M | Yes |
| Traditional 60/40 | $446K | No |
What If You Shifted Retirement?
| Retire at | Years | Portfolio | Sustainable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 7 | $362K | No |
| 50 ★ | 12 | $1.0M | Yes |
| 55 | 17 | $2.3M | Yes |
Portfolio Growth Projection
Portfolio Comparison
Model Comparison
| Model | Portfolio at Retirement | Monthly Budget (inflation-adj.) | Sustainable? | Depletion Age | Max Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Law | $1.0M | $7K | Yes | — | $75K/yr |
| CAGR 20% | $628K | $7K | No | 66 | $54K/yr |
| Traditional 60/40 | $446K | $7K | No | 55 | $14K/yr |
Decade Summary
| Age | Year | Stocks | Bonds | BTC | Other | Total | BTC Amount | BTC Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 2026 | $50K | $20K | $10K | $0 | $80K | 0.149419 BTC | $135K |
| 48 | 2036 | $189K | $98K | $454K | $71K | $813K | 0.264761 BTC | $1.7M |
| 50★ | 2038 | $128K | $113K | $682K | $86K | $1.0M | 0.267966 BTC | $2.5M |
| 58 | 2046 | $0 | $0 | $1.9M | $0 | $1.9M | 0.191475 BTC | $9.8M |
| 68 | 2056 | $0 | $0 | $4.3M | $0 | $4.3M | 0.116478 BTC | $37.0M |
| 78 | 2066 | $0 | $0 | $9.3M | $0 | $9.3M | 0.086032 BTC | $108.1M |
| 85 | 2073 | $0 | $0 | $15.3M | $0 | $15.3M | 0.074407 BTC | $206.1M |
12 Years: From 38 to Retired at 50
The difference between retiring at 50 and 55isn't just 5 more years of work — it's 5 fewer years of portfolio growth AND 5 more years of withdrawals. That double impact makes each year of earlier retirement exponentially more expensive.
With 12 years of accumulation starting at 38, the Power Law model projects a portfolio of $1.0M by age 50. This comfortably sustains $60K/year expenses through age 85.
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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