$50K in Bitcoin vs Bonds over 20 years
Bitcoin (PL)
$7.3M
Power Law
Bonds
$110K
4% avg return
Difference
$7.2M
Bitcoin wins
50/50 Split
$3.7M
half in each
Portfolio Comparison
Year-by-Year Comparison
| Year | Bitcoin (PL) | Bonds | BTC Infl-Adj | Bonds Infl-Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $101K | $50K | $101K | $50K |
| 2028 | $186K | $54K | $175K | $51K |
| 2030 | $321K | $58K | $286K | $52K |
| 2032 | $530K | $63K | $444K | $53K |
| 2034 | $838K | $68K | $662K | $54K |
| 2036 | $1.3M | $74K | $954K | $55K |
| 2038 | $1.9M | $80K | $1.3M | $56K |
| 2040 | $2.7M | $87K | $1.8M | $57K |
| 2042 | $3.9M | $94K | $2.4M | $58K |
| 2044 | $5.4M | $101K | $3.2M | $59K |
| 2046 | $7.3M | $110K | $4.1M | $61K |
Verdict
Power Law: Bitcoin wins — $7.2M more.
CAGR 20%: Bitcoin wins — $1.8M more.
Break-even: Bitcoin only needs 4.0% annual growth to match Bonds.
$50K Bitcoin vs Bonds
This comparison puts $50K into Bitcoin versus Bonds at a 4% average annual return over 20 years. Bitcoin projections use the Power Law model.
Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
$50K vs other assets
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