You have $100K. Bank: $125K in 5 years. Bitcoin: $830K
Power Law model projection vs 4.5% bank APY
Bank (5yr)
$125K
4.5% APY
Bitcoin (5yr)
$830K
Power Law
Worst Case
$332K
60% crash + recovery
80/20 Split
$266K
80% bank / 20% BTC
Portfolio Comparison
Time Horizon Comparison
| Years | Bank (4.5%) | BTC (PL) | BTC (CAGR 20%) | Worst Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1yr | $105K | $276K | $120K | $40K |
| 3yr | $114K | $492K | $173K | $197K |
| 5yr | $125K | $830K | $249K | $332K |
| 10yr | $155K | $2.6M | $619K | $1.0M |
| 20yr | $241K | $14.6M | $3.8M | $5.9M |
Risk: How Much Can You Afford to Lose?
If you can only afford to lose 20% of your savings, your max Bitcoin allocation is $20,000. The remaining $80,000 stays safe in the bank.
This 80/20 split would be worth $266K in 5 years (Power Law) — capturing Bitcoin upside while limiting downside.
DCA Entry Strategy
Instead of buying $100K of Bitcoin at once, spread it over 6 months at $16,667/month. This reduces the risk of buying at a local peak.
Should You Put $100K in Bitcoin?
The bank is guaranteed but slow — 4.5% APY barely keeps up with inflation. Bitcoin is volatile but has dramatically outperformed over any 4+ year period in its history. The answer depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance.
Not financial advice. Bitcoin can lose 50%+ in a single year.
Other savings amounts
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