You have $15K. Bank: $19K in 5 years. Bitcoin: $124K
Power Law model projection vs 4.5% bank APY
Bank (5yr)
$19K
4.5% APY
Bitcoin (5yr)
$124K
Power Law
Worst Case
$50K
60% crash + recovery
80/20 Split
$40K
80% bank / 20% BTC
Portfolio Comparison
Time Horizon Comparison
| Years | Bank (4.5%) | BTC (PL) | BTC (CAGR 20%) | Worst Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1yr | $16K | $41K | $18K | $6K |
| 3yr | $17K | $74K | $26K | $30K |
| 5yr | $19K | $124K | $37K | $50K |
| 10yr | $23K | $385K | $93K | $154K |
| 20yr | $36K | $2.2M | $575K | $878K |
Risk: How Much Can You Afford to Lose?
If you can only afford to lose 20% of your savings, your max Bitcoin allocation is $3,000. The remaining $12,000 stays safe in the bank.
This 80/20 split would be worth $40K in 5 years (Power Law) — capturing Bitcoin upside while limiting downside.
DCA Entry Strategy
Instead of buying $15K of Bitcoin at once, spread it over 6 months at $2,500/month. This reduces the risk of buying at a local peak.
Should You Put $15K in Bitcoin?
The bank is guaranteed but slow — 4.5% APY barely keeps up with inflation. Bitcoin is volatile but has dramatically outperformed over any 4+ year period in its history. The answer depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance.
Not financial advice. Bitcoin can lose 50%+ in a single year.
Other savings amounts
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