You have $20K. Bank: $25K in 5 years. Bitcoin: $166K
Power Law model projection vs 4.5% bank APY
Bank (5yr)
$25K
4.5% APY
Bitcoin (5yr)
$166K
Power Law
Worst Case
$66K
60% crash + recovery
80/20 Split
$53K
80% bank / 20% BTC
Portfolio Comparison
Time Horizon Comparison
| Years | Bank (4.5%) | BTC (PL) | BTC (CAGR 20%) | Worst Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1yr | $21K | $55K | $24K | $8K |
| 3yr | $23K | $98K | $35K | $39K |
| 5yr | $25K | $166K | $50K | $66K |
| 10yr | $31K | $513K | $124K | $205K |
| 20yr | $48K | $2.9M | $767K | $1.2M |
Risk: How Much Can You Afford to Lose?
If you can only afford to lose 20% of your savings, your max Bitcoin allocation is $4,000. The remaining $16,000 stays safe in the bank.
This 80/20 split would be worth $53K in 5 years (Power Law) — capturing Bitcoin upside while limiting downside.
DCA Entry Strategy
Instead of buying $20K of Bitcoin at once, spread it over 6 months at $3,333/month. This reduces the risk of buying at a local peak.
Should You Put $20K in Bitcoin?
The bank is guaranteed but slow — 4.5% APY barely keeps up with inflation. Bitcoin is volatile but has dramatically outperformed over any 4+ year period in its history. The answer depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance.
Not financial advice. Bitcoin can lose 50%+ in a single year.
Other savings amounts
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