You have $500K. Bank: $623K in 5 years. Bitcoin: $4.1M
Power Law model projection vs 4.5% bank APY
Bank (5yr)
$623K
4.5% APY
Bitcoin (5yr)
$4.1M
Power Law
Worst Case
$1.7M
60% crash + recovery
80/20 Split
$1.3M
80% bank / 20% BTC
Portfolio Comparison
Time Horizon Comparison
| Years | Bank (4.5%) | BTC (PL) | BTC (CAGR 20%) | Worst Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1yr | $522K | $1.4M | $600K | $200K |
| 3yr | $571K | $2.5M | $864K | $984K |
| 5yr | $623K | $4.1M | $1.2M | $1.7M |
| 10yr | $776K | $12.8M | $3.1M | $5.1M |
| 20yr | $1.2M | $73.2M | $19.2M | $29.3M |
Risk: How Much Can You Afford to Lose?
If you can only afford to lose 20% of your savings, your max Bitcoin allocation is $100,000. The remaining $400,000 stays safe in the bank.
This 80/20 split would be worth $1.3M in 5 years (Power Law) — capturing Bitcoin upside while limiting downside.
DCA Entry Strategy
Instead of buying $500K of Bitcoin at once, spread it over 6 months at $83,333/month. This reduces the risk of buying at a local peak.
Should You Put $500K in Bitcoin?
The bank is guaranteed but slow — 4.5% APY barely keeps up with inflation. Bitcoin is volatile but has dramatically outperformed over any 4+ year period in its history. The answer depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance.
Not financial advice. Bitcoin can lose 50%+ in a single year.
Other savings amounts
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