$10K in Bitcoin vs Bonds over 20 years
Bitcoin (PL)
$1.5M
Power Law
Bonds
$22K
4% avg return
Difference
$1.4M
Bitcoin wins
50/50 Split
$743K
half in each
Portfolio Comparison
Year-by-Year Comparison
| Year | Bitcoin (PL) | Bonds | BTC Infl-Adj | Bonds Infl-Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $20K | $10K | $20K | $10K |
| 2028 | $37K | $11K | $35K | $10K |
| 2030 | $64K | $12K | $57K | $10K |
| 2032 | $106K | $13K | $89K | $11K |
| 2034 | $168K | $14K | $132K | $11K |
| 2036 | $256K | $15K | $191K | $11K |
| 2038 | $380K | $16K | $267K | $11K |
| 2040 | $550K | $17K | $363K | $11K |
| 2042 | $777K | $19K | $484K | $12K |
| 2044 | $1.1M | $20K | $632K | $12K |
| 2046 | $1.5M | $22K | $810K | $12K |
Verdict
Power Law: Bitcoin wins — $1.4M more.
CAGR 20%: Bitcoin wins — $361K more.
Break-even: Bitcoin only needs 4.0% annual growth to match Bonds.
$10K Bitcoin vs Bonds
This comparison puts $10K into Bitcoin versus Bonds at a 4% average annual return over 20 years. Bitcoin projections use the Power Law model.
Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
$10K vs other assets
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