$10K in Bitcoin vs S&P 500 over 5 years
Bitcoin (PL)
$83K
Power Law
S&P 500
$16K
10% avg return
Difference
$67K
Bitcoin wins
50/50 Split
$50K
half in each
Portfolio Comparison
Year-by-Year Comparison
| Year | Bitcoin (PL) | S&P 500 | BTC Infl-Adj | S&P 500 Infl-Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $20K | $10K | $20K | $10K |
| 2027 | $28K | $11K | $27K | $11K |
| 2028 | $37K | $12K | $35K | $11K |
| 2029 | $49K | $13K | $45K | $12K |
| 2030 | $64K | $15K | $57K | $13K |
| 2031 | $83K | $16K | $72K | $14K |
Verdict
Power Law: Bitcoin wins — $67K more.
CAGR 20%: Bitcoin wins — $9K more.
Break-even: Bitcoin only needs 10.0% annual growth to match S&P 500.
$10K Bitcoin vs S&P 500
This comparison puts $10K into Bitcoin versus S&P 500 at a 10% average annual return over 5 years. Bitcoin projections use the Power Law model.
Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
$10K vs other assets
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