$100K in Bitcoin vs S&P 500 over 5 years
Bitcoin (PL)
$830K
Power Law
S&P 500
$161K
10% avg return
Difference
$669K
Bitcoin wins
50/50 Split
$495K
half in each
Portfolio Comparison
Year-by-Year Comparison
| Year | Bitcoin (PL) | S&P 500 | BTC Infl-Adj | S&P 500 Infl-Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $202K | $100K | $202K | $100K |
| 2027 | $276K | $110K | $268K | $107K |
| 2028 | $372K | $121K | $350K | $114K |
| 2029 | $492K | $133K | $450K | $122K |
| 2030 | $643K | $146K | $571K | $130K |
| 2031 | $830K | $161K | $716K | $139K |
Verdict
Power Law: Bitcoin wins — $669K more.
CAGR 20%: Bitcoin wins — $88K more.
Break-even: Bitcoin only needs 10.0% annual growth to match S&P 500.
$100K Bitcoin vs S&P 500
This comparison puts $100K into Bitcoin versus S&P 500 at a 10% average annual return over 5 years. Bitcoin projections use the Power Law model.
Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
$100K vs other assets
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