$100K in Bitcoin vs Bonds over 20 years
Bitcoin (PL)
$14.6M
Power Law
Bonds
$219K
4% avg return
Difference
$14.4M
Bitcoin wins
50/50 Split
$7.4M
half in each
Portfolio Comparison
Year-by-Year Comparison
| Year | Bitcoin (PL) | Bonds | BTC Infl-Adj | Bonds Infl-Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $202K | $100K | $202K | $100K |
| 2028 | $372K | $108K | $350K | $102K |
| 2030 | $643K | $117K | $571K | $104K |
| 2032 | $1.1M | $127K | $888K | $106K |
| 2034 | $1.7M | $137K | $1.3M | $108K |
| 2036 | $2.6M | $148K | $1.9M | $110K |
| 2038 | $3.8M | $160K | $2.7M | $112K |
| 2040 | $5.5M | $173K | $3.6M | $114K |
| 2042 | $7.8M | $187K | $4.8M | $117K |
| 2044 | $10.8M | $203K | $6.3M | $119K |
| 2046 | $14.6M | $219K | $8.1M | $121K |
Verdict
Power Law: Bitcoin wins — $14.4M more.
CAGR 20%: Bitcoin wins — $3.6M more.
Break-even: Bitcoin only needs 4.0% annual growth to match Bonds.
$100K Bitcoin vs Bonds
This comparison puts $100K into Bitcoin versus Bonds at a 4% average annual return over 20 years. Bitcoin projections use the Power Law model.
Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
$100K vs other assets
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