$100K in Bitcoin vs S&P 500 over 20 years
Bitcoin (PL)
$14.6M
Power Law
S&P 500
$673K
10% avg return
Difference
$14.0M
Bitcoin wins
50/50 Split
$7.7M
half in each
Portfolio Comparison
Year-by-Year Comparison
| Year | Bitcoin (PL) | S&P 500 | BTC Infl-Adj | S&P 500 Infl-Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $202K | $100K | $202K | $100K |
| 2028 | $372K | $121K | $350K | $114K |
| 2030 | $643K | $146K | $571K | $130K |
| 2032 | $1.1M | $177K | $888K | $148K |
| 2034 | $1.7M | $214K | $1.3M | $169K |
| 2036 | $2.6M | $259K | $1.9M | $193K |
| 2038 | $3.8M | $314K | $2.7M | $220K |
| 2040 | $5.5M | $380K | $3.6M | $251K |
| 2042 | $7.8M | $459K | $4.8M | $286K |
| 2044 | $10.8M | $556K | $6.3M | $327K |
| 2046 | $14.6M | $673K | $8.1M | $372K |
Verdict
Power Law: Bitcoin wins — $14.0M more.
CAGR 20%: Bitcoin wins — $3.2M more.
Break-even: Bitcoin only needs 10.0% annual growth to match S&P 500.
$100K Bitcoin vs S&P 500
This comparison puts $100K into Bitcoin versus S&P 500 at a 10% average annual return over 20 years. Bitcoin projections use the Power Law model.
Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
$100K vs other assets
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